Precisión e incertidumbre de las precipitaciones estimadas por modelos en la España Peninsular (1961-2000)variaciones espaciales y temporales

  1. Nicola Cortesi 1
  2. José Carlos González-Hidalgo 1
  3. William Cabos 2
  4. Michele Brunetti 3
  5. Martín de Luis 1
  1. 1 Universidad de Zaragoza
    info

    Universidad de Zaragoza

    Zaragoza, España

    ROR https://ror.org/012a91z28

  2. 2 Universidad de Alcalá
    info

    Universidad de Alcalá

    Alcalá de Henares, España

    ROR https://ror.org/04pmn0e78

  3. 3 Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC)
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Libro:
Cambio climático. Extremos e impactos: [ponencias presentadas al VIII Congreso Internacional de la Asociación Española de Climatología]
  1. Concepción Rodríguez Puebla (coord.)
  2. Antonio Ceballos Barbancho (coord.)
  3. Nube González Reviriego (coord.)
  4. Enrique Morán Tejeda (coord.)
  5. Ascensión Hernández Encinas (coord.)

Editorial: Asociación Española de Climatología

ISBN: 978-84-695-4331-3

Año de publicación: 2012

Páginas: 53-62

Congreso: Asociación Española de Climatología. Congreso (8. 2012. Salamanca)

Tipo: Aportación congreso

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Resumen

A validation analysis of the Spanish peninsular seasonal precipitation at a resolution of 25 km (1961-2000 period) simulated by 11 regional climate models forced with ERA40 lateral boundary conditions is presented. The models derive from the ENSEMBLES project. Validation was conducted using MOPREDAS dataset to take advantage of its high spatial density and its long temporal period covered (1946-2005), necessary for the purpose of validation of high-resolution regional climatic simulations. Results suggest that, generally, the multi-model mean performs better in central and western Spain especially during winter season, and worse during summer and along the Mediterranean fringe. The most probable reasons of such a spatial and temporal distribution are discussed. All models are able to reproduce the NAO atmospheric pattern, which is especially influent in the central and western Spain, however they fail to reproduce other important patterns, particularly in the areas where the performance of the models is already low. Finally, some implications of model predictions in areas where accuracy is low are discussed.

Fuente de los datos: Dialnet