Análisis de los principales factores determinantes de las emisiones de CO2

Abstract

Change (CC) is one of the great challenges of humanity and one of the main threats to sustainable development, with great economic, social and environmental consequences. For this reason, it is necessary to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the atmosphere, with carbon dioxide (CO2) the main one, and obtain greater awareness of energy efficiency. Both actions are key to mitigate climate change. In order to know precisely the relationships between economic, demographic variables and the volume of GHG emissions to make possible the decoupling between economic growth and these emissions, it is necessary to develop indicators capable of analyzing these interactions. Through these indicators, it will be possible to design energy projects that help to meet the proposed objectives and carry out an analysis of the main determinants that could lead to conclusions that help to establish lines of action. The aim of this doctoral thesis project is to analyze the determinants of CO2 emissions in two economies: Spanish and Chilean. This choice is due to the existing research project between our research group and Universidad Autónoma de Chile. The main contributions of this thesis can be briefly summarized as follows: On the one hand, we present an analysis of main drivers of CO2 emissions in Spain for the 1995–2009 period. This research carries out a multisector analysis based on the Log-Mean Divisia Index Method (LMDI I). The decomposition factors used are the Carbon Intensity factor (CI), the Energy Intensity factor (EI), the structural composition of Spain's economy (Economy Structure, ES), the Economic Activity factor (EA) and Population (P), respectively. Major findings show that renewable energy sources (RES) acted as a compensating factor of the drivers of CO2 emissions. The positive trend for the share of RES in Spain's energy matrix, together with the negative tendency in the use of fossil fuels, leads us to be optimistic. On the second hand, we present an evaluation of the performance of Chile's CO2 emissions between 1991 and 2013 using an analysis based on log-mean divisia index method (LMDI I) to examine emissions and their components. Six decomposition factors were considered: Carbon Intensity effect (CI), RES penetration effect (RES), Energy Intensity effect (EI), Economy Structure effect (ES), Income effect (Yp) and Population effect (P). To know how these factors could influence each other in the future, the Innovative Accounting Approach (IAA) was used, including forecast error variance decomposition and Impulse Response Functions (IRFs). These two methodologies allow us to identify the drivers of CO2 emission changes in the past (1991–2013), test policy measures and learn how these drivers could influence each other in the future, to evaluate whether the current measures meet the Paris Agreement’s commitments. The LMDI analysis results show that the Energy Intensity Factor is the main compensating factor of Chile's CO2 emissions and the only effect with a clear trend to aid the decoupling between economic growth and GHG emissions. IAA and IFRs results react similarly and confirm that carbon intensity reacts to shocks more significantly in the short term. The reaction to RES has the same and opposite behavior to shocks in ES and Yp, to disappear in the long term. These finding represent a major contribution, not only for researchers but also for companies and policy makers. To the best of our knowledge there are no previous analyzes of the main drivers of CO2 in these economies. Results could lead to establish lines of action in order to design energy projects that help to fight against climate change.