El nuevo modelo de negocio en aviación comercial surgido como consecuencia de la crisis financiera globalreconfiguración del sector de la aviación comercial en España

Abstract

This thesis examines the state of air transport markets and the airline industry following the recession of 2008–2009. It finds that demand for air transport has proved robust in the face of repeated shocks. Following the recession, international air travel and airfreight regained prerecession levels less than 18 months after the recession low point. Globalized business supply chains continue to depend upon fast air cargo services. Airlines found adjusting their fleet to this demand shock challenging, given commitments to take delivery of new aircraft, ordered at the peak of the previous cycle. Capacity was cut but largely by underutilizing aircraft, which accentuated financial losses. Cash flows have now rebounded in many regions. But returns on capital remains well below the industry’s weighted average cost of capital, representing shareholder value destruction that persists even in the good years. There is a lack of competition in parts of the supply chain but that is found not to be the main source of inadequate airline profitability. Rather the value created by the air transport industry is being captured completely by its consumers and the wider economy. Over the past 40 years the air transport of passengers and cargo measured by tonne kilometers flown has expanded tenfold, well in excess of the three to fourfold expansion in the world economy. The real cost of air travel has fallen by half in that period. Clearly substantial consumer surplus or value is being created for consumers of air travel and air cargo services. The rapid rebound in air transport demand, following the deepest recession since the 1930s, confirms the high income elasticity of air travel demand found in most markets by studies such as Gillen and Morrison (2007) and InterVISTAS (2007), with the exception of the mature US domestic market. Despite this strong growth and value creation for consumers, airline profits remain exceptionally low. Airline profits have rebounded after the recession but there is little sign that returns on capital invested will reach the industry’s weighted average cost of capital, which theory would suggest is the minimum for capital to continue to flow into the industry. This thesis is divided in six chapters. In the first chapter the initial impact of the economic crisis in the air transport sector in the EU is analyzed. In this chapter the structure of the sector at the beginning of the crisis, which were past trends and what is the impact of the level of alliances, consolidation and niche market is analyzed. It also analyzes as the entry of new operators in the market and a change in the influence of governments in relation to the air transport sector occurs. In order to establish the conditions governing the business model of commercial aviation in the future, it is necessary to know how these companies operate from an economic and financial standpoint, and that is why so in the second chapter these aspects are analyzed in depth, at the level of costs, revenue management, competitive analysis and management indicators. In the third chapter a thorough analysis of the airport sector in Spain is made. In this chapter the economic characteristics and dynamic evolution of it are developed, competitive and dynamic variables are reviewed and a detailed study of the Spanish airport sector financial legal, regulatory and economic level is made. Many of the recommendations and conclusions drawn in this chapter are reflected in a patent in the current situation in the air transport sector in Spain. In the fourth chapter a thorough analysis of how value creation in the air transport industry occurs, as the sector's profitability is explained, and what are the major players in an industry that is characterized by its high resilience with the pass of the time. This analysis is key in determining what will be the trends that will shape the structure and trends in the near future. It is set to be the business model and the air transport sector in the not too distant horizon of 2050. The situation of the air transport sector in Spain, companies, passenger traffic and airports in the Spanish market level is discussed in chapter five. This chapter provides a picture of the situation in Spain over the last year is done, and a ranking and market analysis that will guide future trends is established. Finally, in the sixth chapter, the conclusions following the analysis in the preceding chapters, and based on statistics, reports, market forecasts and data that each industry players generated in real time.