From secular stagnation to robocalypse?implications of demographic and technological changes

  1. Henrique S. Basso 1
  2. Juan F. Jimeno 1
  1. 1 Banco de España
    info

    Banco de España

    Madrid, España

    ROR https://ror.org/02f26yq04

Journal:
Documentos de trabajo - Banco de España

ISSN: 0213-2710

Year of publication: 2020

Issue: 4

Pages: 1-62

Type: Working paper

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Abstract

Demographic change and automation are two main structural trends shaping the macroeconomy in the next decades. We present a general equilibrium model with a tractable life-cycle structure that allows the investigation of the main transmission mechanisms by which demography and technology affect economic growth. Due to a trade-off between innovation and automation, lower fertility and population ageing lead to reductions in GDP per capita growth and the labour income share. During the demographic transition, the extent growth and factor shares are affected depends on alternative labour market confi gurations and scenarios for the integration of robots in economic activity

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