Sobre las causas y las consecuencias del estancamiento secular
-
1
Banco de España
info
ISSN: 0210-9107
Año de publicación: 2020
Número: 164
Páginas: 134-146
Tipo: Artículo
Otras publicaciones en: Papeles de economía española
Resumen
This paper reviews the recent literature on the economic implications of demographic and technological changes from the perspective of the so-called «secular stagnation» hypothesis. It highlights the main mechanisms by which those changes affect macroeconomic variables, and singles out some important consequences for economic and social policies. The main conclusion is the emergence of a new economic context that requires close examination of the macroeconomic policy mix implemented in the past and of the stance and instruments of fiscal and social policies. It also suggests the main research areas that need to be covered to achieve this goal.
Referencias bibliográficas
- Acemoglu, D. y Restrepo, P. (2017). Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation. American Economic Review, 107(5), pp. 174-179.
- Aksoy, Y., Basso, H.S., Smith, R. P. y Grasl, T. (2019). Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 11(1), pp. 193-222.
- Autor, D. y Salomons, A. (2018). Is Automation Labor ShareDisplacing? Productivity Growth, Employment, and the Labor Share. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 49(1), pp. 1-87.
- Basso, H. S. y Jimeno, J. F. (2019). From Secular Stagnation to Robocalypse? Implications of Demographic and Technological Changes. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research.
- Basso, H. y Rachedi, O. (2018). The Young, the Old, and the Government: Demographics and Fiscal Multipliers. Working Papers, n.º 1837. Banco de España.
- Blanchard, O. J. (2019). Public Debt and Low Interest Rates. NBER Working Papers, n.º 25621.
- Blanchard, O. J. y Summers, L. (2020). Automatic Stabilizers in a Low-Rate Environment. Policy Briefs, PB20-2. Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Bloom, N., Jones, C. I, Van Reenen, J. y Webb, M. (2017). Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find? NBER Working Papers, n.º 23782.
- Byrne, D. M., Fernald, J. G. y Reinsdorf, M. B. (2016). Does the United States have a productivity slowdown or a measurement problem? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, pp. 109-182.
- Eggertsson G. B., Lancastre, M. y Summers, L. H. (2018). Aging, output per capita and secular stagnation. NBER Working Papers, n.º 24902.
- Fiorentini, G., Galesi, A., Pérez-Quirós, G. y Sentana, E. (2018). The Rise and Fall of the Natural Interest Rate. Working Papers, n.º 1822. Banco de España.
- Galí, J. (2020). The effects of a money-financed fiscal stimulus. Journal of Monetary Economics. En prensa. doi. org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.08.002
- García-Santana, M., Moral-Benito, E., Pijoan-Mas, J. y Ramos, R. (2020). Growing like Spain: 1995-2007. International Economic Review, 61, pp. 383-416.
- Gopinath, G., Kalemli-Özcan, S., Karabarbounis, L y Villegas-Sánchez, C. (2017). Capital Allocation and Productivity in South Europe. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132, Issue 4, November, pp. 1915-1967. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx024
- Hansen, A. (1939). Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth. The American Economic Review, 29(1), pp. 1-15.
- Holston, K., Laubach, T. y Williams, J. C. (2017). Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants. Journal of International Economics, 108(S1), pp. S59-S75.
- Holston, K., Laubach, T. y Williams, J. C. (2019). Fewer babies and more robots: economic growth in a new era of demographic and technological changes. SERIEs 10, pp. 93-114.
- [Juan Francisco JIMENO SERRANO] (2020a). Innovación, automatización y productividad. Informe Económico y Financiero, 26. ESADE.
- [Juan Francisco JIMENO SERRANO] (2020b). Elementos de una reforma sostenible de las pensiones. Papeles de Economía Española, 161, pp. 42-54.
- Karabarbounis, L. y Neiman, B. (2014). The Global Decline of the Labor Share. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(1), pp. 61-103.
- Liang, J., Wand, H. y Lazear, E (2018). Demographics and Entrepreneurship. Journal of Political Economy, 126(S1), pp. S140-S196.
- Ramey, V. A. y Zubairy, S. (2018). Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data. Journal of Political Economy, 126(2), pp. 850-901.
- Samuelson, P. (1958). An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money. Journal of Political Economy, 66(6), pp. 467-482.
- Sebastián, R. (2018). Explaining job polarisation in Spain from a task perspective. SERIEs, 9, pp. 215-248.
- Summers, L. (2014). U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound. Business Economics, 49, pp. 65-73.
- Syverson, C. (2017). Does mismeasurement explain low productivity growth? Business Economics, 52(2). pp. 99-102. Palgrave Macmillan. National Association for Business Economics.
- Teulings, C. y Baldwin, R. (2014). Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures. A VoxEU.org eBook. London: CEPR Press.