Determinantes de estabilidad cambiaria en países miembros y candidatos de la Unión Europeaun análisis basado en algoritmos genéticos

  1. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera 2
  2. Eduardo Acosta-González 1
  1. 1 Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria
    info

    Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria

    Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, España

    ROR https://ror.org/01teme464

  2. 2 Universidad Complutense de Madrid
    info

    Universidad Complutense de Madrid

    Madrid, España

    ROR 02p0gd045

Aldizkaria:
Cuadernos de economía: Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance

ISSN: 2340-6704,  0210-0266

Argitalpen urtea: 2017

Alea: 40

Zenbakia: 112

Orrialdeak: 68-82

Mota: Artikulua

DOI: 10.1016/J.CESJEF.2015.12.002 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openBiblos-e Archivo editor

Beste argitalpen batzuk: Cuadernos de economía: Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance

Laburpena

In this work, a study is made on the main factors that can determine the possibility that a country decides to adopt and maintain a de facto fixed exchange rate system, by analysing the economies of 17 countries from the European Union. As a measure of robustness, three alternatives of study variable were considered, as well as contrasting the sensitivity of the results obtained using different forecasting models. Using this methodology of genetic algorithms, a large group of explanatory variables is examined based on first, second, third, and fourth generation models. Added to these, were variables of a political nature, confidence, expectations, and institutional nature, with the aim of evaluating if it improves the explanatory capacity of exchange rate stability. Among the higher impact factors, the group of variables that measure competiveness clearly stand out, due to their repeated presence in the different models, as well as due to their predictive power. Within this group, true exchange rate shows special significance, as well the harmonised consumer price index of the country of reference, which in our case is the Eurozone. Other variables highlighted but to a lesser extent are, the M1 monetary aggregate, central parity, the confidence in the European institutions, the expectations of the agents, parliamentary ideology, and the freedom of political rights.

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