¿Cuál será el coste de las tecnologías de generación eléctrica renovable en el futuro?

  1. Pablo DEL RÍO 1
  2. Christoph P. KIEFER 2
  1. 1 Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
    info

    Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas

    Madrid, España

    ROR https://ror.org/02gfc7t72

  2. 2 Fraunhofer ISI
Journal:
Papeles de economía española

ISSN: 0210-9107

Year of publication: 2022

Issue: 174

Pages: 34-50

Type: Article

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More publications in: Papeles de economía española

Abstract

Renewable energy technologies and, more specifically, renewable electricity generation technologies are a main pillar of the energy transition which is needed to achieve the targets of the Paris Agreement, and their costs will be a relevant element of this transition. The aim of this article is to identify the expected ranges of levelised electricity costs (LCOE) of those technologies in the future, with a specific focus on the wind and solar technologies. The systematic review of the literature has allowed us to identify 25 documents with predictions of the levelised electricity costs in different countries in the world in the future. Our results show different cost ranges for the different technologies: in 2030 these will be between 16 and 129 €/MWh for wind on-shore, 43 and 178 €/MWh for wind off-shore, 31 and 152 €/MWh for roof-top solar PV, 14 and 117 €/MWh for ground-mounted PV and 44 and 105 €/MWh for solar thermal electricity. In 2050, the ranges will be shorter and at lower levels: 15 and 40 €/MWh for wind on- shore, 25 and 80 €/MWh for offshore wind, 9 and 83 €/MWh for PV and 45 and 101 €/ MWh for solar thermal electricity. These future costs involve considerable reductions with respect to current costs. In percentage terms, the greatest expected cost reductions will occur in wind off-shore and solar PV, followed by solar thermal and wind on-shore.

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