Análisis de la demanda y oferta de servicios policiales en Colombia para el posconflictouna visión de desarrollo sostenible

Supervised by:
  1. Sandra Jennina Sánchez Perdomo Director
  2. Mónica Giménez Baldazo Co-director

Defence university: Universidad de Alcalá

Fecha de defensa: 21 June 2023

  1. José Luis Niño Amezquita Chair
  2. Gregorio Sánchez Marín Secretary
  3. Jesús María Cárdenas Beltrán Committee member

Type: Thesis


The importance of supply and demand analysis (SDA) of police services for Colombia lies in the fact that it is obtained through cause-effect inference, based on the contextual variables that influence them. There is a gap in the literature regarding the models used for this type of analysis. There is also no evidence of an ADO of police services in Colombia. In response to this need, the objective of this study is to design a model for the analysis of the demand and supply of police services (MADOSP) for the National Police of Colombia (PONAL), which evaluates the relationship between the services offered and the satisfaction of the needs of the target social groups. A longitudinal, exploratory, descriptive, descriptive, correlational and explanatory study was conducted, and the results of the MADOSP of police services in Colombia for the period from 2003 to 2019 are presented. The research includes the identification of the economic, social, environmental and inter-institutional factors that most influence the demand and supply of police services, their prioritisation and most significant correlations. It also defines which factors are significantly related to the deterioration of the conditions of citizen security, coexistence and tranquillity (CSCTC). The confirmatory analysis was carried out using the most convenient statistical techniques according to the type and amount of data collected. The results obtained contribute to the generation of knowledge in organisational management and police administration. A coherent, relevant and sufficient MADOSP has been formulated with the requirements of the police service, the post-conflict challenges and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the country and has been statistically tested. The OAD resulting from this research offers an exceptional contribution that constitutes a managerial tool for those responsible for the National Policy for Citizen Security and Coexistence (PNSCC), allowing them to assess the capacity of PONAL to meet the demand of its target social groups. For external clients, so that they can actively participate in the evaluation of the service and contribute to its improvement, and for surveillance and control bodies, as a criterion for reviewing the operational strategies formulated by PONAL