Influencia del cambio climático en la vegetación andaluzaespecial referencia a los hábitats de interés comunitario

Abstract

The 55 climatophilic habitats present in Andalusia are bioclimatically characterised, based on 5706 vegetation samples and climatic information from 3988 meteorological stations. The bioclimatic trend models were obtained by analysing time series to generate 4 climate change scenarios: current, 25, 50 and 100 years ahead. Using the MaxEnt maximum entropy algorithm, the suitability of each habitat and its occupancy was modelled for each of the scenarios. The results show substantial changes in the suitable areas for most habitats and scenarios. Positive trends in temperature and negative trends in precipitation predict a reduction in deciduous formations, Spanish firs, maritime formations and, to a lesser extent, cork oak and holm oak forests. While favourable scenarios are established for the more xerophytic formations such as pine groves, palm groves or arbutus groves. A change in the floristic composition of the plant communities is also evident.