On the Vulnerability of Economies to Covid-19An Empirical Approach

  1. Carmen Díaz Roldán 1
  2. José María Pérez de la Cruz
  3. María del Carmen Ramos Herrera 2
  1. 1 Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha
    info

    Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha

    Ciudad Real, España

    ROR https://ror.org/05r78ng12

  2. 2 Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
    info

    Universidad Autónoma de Madrid

    Madrid, España

    ROR https://ror.org/01cby8j38

Journal:
Revista de economía mundial

ISSN: 1576-0162

Year of publication: 2021

Issue: 58

Pages: 95-114

Type: Article

DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openArias Montano editor

More publications in: Revista de economía mundial

Abstract

During the confinement due to the Covid-19 crisis, economies survived thanks to the available technology and changes of the production model. To study the vulnerability of economies against the challenges of the recovery, in this paper we study the role of some factors related to the development of productive sectors, the use of technology, and the structure of public finances. Using panel data estimations for the European Union, we identify some characteristics that would help economies to boost economic growth. We find that the employment in sectors with a high technological content is the variable that most drives output growth.

Bibliographic References

  • Abramovitz, M. (1986): Catching up, forging ahead, and falling behind, Journal of Economic History 46, 385-406.
  • AndreB, H.-J., Golsch, K. and Schmidt, A. W. (2013): Applied panel data analysis for economic and social surveys. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg.
  • Ardagna, S., Caselli, F., and Lane, T. (2007): "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries" The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics 7(1),1-35.
  • Auerbach, A., Gorodnichenko, Y., and Murphy, D. (2020): Fiscal Policy and COVID19 Restrictions in a Demand-Determined Economy, NBER Working Paper 27366.
  • Barro, R. (1974): “Are government bonds net wealth?”, Journal of Political Economy 82, 1095-1117.
  • Baltagi, B. (2008): Forecasting with panel data. Journal of Forecasting, 27 (2), 153-173.
  • Bongers, A. and Torres, J. (2017): “Fiscal policy, the current account and the twin deficits hypothesis”, Cuadernos Económicos de Información Comercial Española 94, 33-56.
  • Bird, G., Pentecost, E. and Yang, Y. (2019): “The twin deficits hypothesis: an empirical examination”, Open Economies Review 30, 759-777.
  • De la Cámara Arilla, C. (2000): “El teletrabajo, un indicador de cambio en el mercado de trabajo”, Cuaderno de relaciones laborales 17, 227- 256.
  • Dulcich, F. (2018): Desarrollo y adopción de tecnología: ¿la nueva dicotomía de la división internacional del trabajo? Cuadernos de Economía, 37(74), 315-352.
  • Greene, W. (2008): Econometric analysis. 6th ed., Upper Saddle River, N. J. Prentice Hall.
  • Helpman, E. (2004): The Mystery of Economic Growth, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.
  • Hsiao, C. (2014). Analysis of Panel Data. Third edition. Cambridge University Press, New York.
  • International Labour Office, ILO (2019): World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2019, International Labour Office, Geneva.
  • Jones, C. and Romer, P. (2010): The new Kaldor facts: Ideas, institutions, population, and human capital, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2 (1), 224-245, DOI: 10.1257/mac.2.1.224
  • Jorgenson, D. (2001). Information Technology and the US Economy, American Economic Review 91(1), 1-32. DOI: 10.1257/aer.91.1.1
  • Jorgenson, D. and Stiroh, K. (2000): Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age. Brooking Papers on Economic Activity 1, 125-211. DOI: 10.1353/eca.2000.0008
  • Kaldor, N. (1961): “Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth” en F. Lutz y D. Hague (eds.), The Theory of Capital, Macmillan, Londres.
  • Kay, N. and Vanborren, W. (2018): “Is digitalisation changing labour markets? And what statistics are needed to help policy makers?”, in Power from Statistics: data, information and knowledge OUTLOOK REPORT 2018 edition, Eurostat, European Union, pp. 151-156.
  • Miller, S..and Russek, F. (1989):"Are the Twin Deficits Really Related?", Contemporary Economic Policy 7(4), 91–115
  • OMS (2020a): COVID-19: Cronología de la actuación de la OMS. https://www.who.int/es/news-room/detail/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19
  • OMS (2020b): Alocución de apertura del Director General de la OMS. Rueda de prensa sobre la COVID-19 celebrada el 11 de marzo de 2020. https://www.who.int/es/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020
  • OMS (2020c): Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
  • https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf?sfvrsn=fce87f4e_2
  • Pianta, M. (2018): “Technology and Employment: Twelve Stylised Facts for the Digital Age”, The Indian Journal of Labour Economics. 61, 189–225
  • Reuveny, R. and Thompson, W. (2001): “Leading sectors, lead economies, and economic growth”, Review of International Political Economy 8:4, 689-719
  • Thirlwall, A. (1979): “The balance of payments constraint as an explanation of international growth rate differences”, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro quarterly review 128, 45–53.
  • Valle, E. (2020): “La reacción de la Unión Europea ante el Covid-19”, Fundación de Estudios de Economía Aplicada, FEDEA, Apuntes no. 2020-03, Madrid.
  • Zeira, J. (1998): Workers, machines, and economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 113 (4), 1091-1117
Data source: Dialnet