¿Cuál será el coste de las tecnologías de generación eléctrica renovable en el futuro?

  1. Pablo DEL RÍO 1
  2. Christoph P. KIEFER 2
  1. 1 Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
    info

    Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas

    Madrid, España

    ROR https://ror.org/02gfc7t72

  2. 2 Fraunhofer ISI
Revista:
Papeles de economía española

ISSN: 0210-9107

Año de publicación: 2022

Número: 174

Páginas: 34-50

Tipo: Artículo

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Otras publicaciones en: Papeles de economía española

Resumen

Las tecnologías renovables y, más concretamente, las tecnologías de generación eléctrica basadas en fuentes de energía renovables constituyen un pilar básico en la transición energética necesaria para lograr los objetivos del Acuerdo de París, y su coste es un elemento relevante en la misma. El objetivo de este trabajo es identificar los rangos de costes nivelados probables de dichas tecnologías en el futuro, con especial atención a las tecnologías eólicas y solares. La revisión sistemática de la literatura ha permitido identificar 25 documentos con predicciones de los costes nivelados a futuro en distintos países del mundo. Nuestros resultados muestran un rango de costes en 2030 para la eólica terrestre de entre 16 y 129 euros/MWh, entre 43 y 178 euros /MWh para la eólica marina, entre 31 y 152 euros/MWh para la solar fotovoltaica de techo y entre 14 y 117 euros/MWh para suelo y de entre 44 y 105 /MWh para la solar termoeléctrica. Los rangos de costes a 2050 serían menores, y a un nivel inferior: entre 15 y 40 eurosMWh para la eólica terrestre, 25 y 80 euros/MWh para la eólica marina, 9 y 83 euros/MWh para la solar fotovoltaica y 45 y 101 euros/ MWh para la solar termoeléctrica. Estos costes futuros suponen reducciones considerables con respecto a los costes actuales. En términos porcentuales, las mayores reducciones esperadas tendrán lugar en la eólica marina y la solar fotovoltaica, seguida de la solar termoeléctrica y la eólica terrestre.

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